PROPAGATION NEWS

DX-PEDITION TO D44 CAPE VERDE 1995

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UKSMG JY7SIX EXPEDITION 1994

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Just see what can be worked on the VHF bands (above 30MHz), all the above was worked on CW or SSB at Solar peak Cycle 22 via F2 and “ES” propagation, over the horizon VHF, no FT8, play the video below, with a little effort anybody can work that real dx. The video was made for the RSGB convention over 20 years ago. People call 50MHz a “MAGIC BAND” but there’s no magic involved, it’s called understanding propagation and the MUF.

The video was made by G4ICD for the RSGB Convention in 1998

INFO COURTESY OF SPACEWEATHER.COM

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SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE TO DEC 2024

Solar Cycle 25 wasn’t expected to be this strong. When it began in Dec. 2019, experts predicted it would be a weak cycle like its immediate predecessor Solar Cycle 24. If that forecast had panned out, Solar Cycle 25 would be one of the weakest solar cycles in a century.

Instead, Solar Cycle 25 has shot past Solar Cycle 24 and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century. Already in May 2024 we have experienced a century-class geomagnetic storm with auroras sighted in the South Pacific, central America and south Africa.

WATCHING THE MUF LIVE

GJ4ICD/G4ICD

A real low cost way to track the MUF live! My life has always been VHF and above, the challenge to work over the horizon on VHF and UHF has been my passion for over 50 years. Now with new technology anybody can set up a low cost “Tiny SA” and watch the MUF live.

Watching the MUF live, this is a great tool for watching the spectrum live at your location which is better than looking at cluster and remote SDR sites, I set the span scan at 28MHz > 150MHz, audio and visual, still a few level adjustments to do along with a broadband antenna to cover 28 > 150MHz: As the MUF rises the VHF spectrum becomes ALIVE, 50MHz SSB/CW/FT8 then 88 to 108MHz becomes full of Eu FM broadcasts, markers can be inserted on the scan and audio can be monitored by a simple click on the software screen. EU VOR’s can be identified in the airband and located (cw ident) giving a 99% certainty of where the opening will be, it is then time to switch on 144MHz SSB and carefully listen around 144.300MHz:

TX 70.250MHz test transmission

OCTOBER PROPAGATION NEWS:

1/10/2026: A = 3 : K = 0: A CME IS COMING–MAYBE TWO: A G1 geomagnetic storm watch is in effect as one and maybe two CMEs approach Earth. The first CME is almost a sure thing. It will probably deliver a glancing blow on Oct. 2nd. The second CME is less certain. It is faint and less well aimed, but could make itself felt as a near-miss on Oct. 4th. Stay tuned for high-latitude auroras during the first week of October.

SPACE WEATHER DELAYS AN ENGLISH TRAIN: Research into the origins of space weather has led scholars to a strange place: An express train in England. Date: Oct. 18, 1848.

A new paper published in the peer-reviewed journal Space Weather examines a curious 16-minute delay almost 180 years ago. At the Exeter platform, passengers sat motionless from 10:05 pm to 10:21 pm because signalers couldn’t confirm that the track was clear.

A sunspot was to blame. Just as the train was scheduled to leave the station, a geomagnetic storm interfered with the telegraph system. Electric currents surged through the wires, and the needles signalers used to check the line swung wildly.

The next morning, British clergyman Temple Chevallier sketched a huge sunspot group facing Earth. A month later, when the same sunspot group came around again, auroras lit up the skies of Italy. On Nov. 17, 1848, telegraph instruments between Florence and Pisa jammed just as they had done in Exeter.

All of this took place 11 years before the Carrington Event–a September 1859 solar super-storm sometimes called “the birth of space weather.” Solar flares were discovered during the Carrington Event when Richard Carrington saw the bloom of a flare on his solar projection screen.

Before you memorize 1848, however, consider the previous year. On March 19, 1847, railway engineer William Barlow noticed something strange on the Midland Railway near Derby, England. “A brilliant aurora was seen,” he reported to the Royal Society, “and during the whole time, strong alternating deflections occurred on all [our telegraph] instruments.”

The authors of the new paper believe that is the first documented case of the sun interfering with human tech. The “Barlow Event,” anyone?

2/10/2026: A = 4: K = 1:

3/10/2026: A = 3: K = 2:

THE CME HAS ARRIVED: Arriving a few hours later than predicted, a CME hit Earth on Oct 3rd at 0251 UTC. This is not a major CME. Nevertheless, it is capable of sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm with high-latitude auroras in the hours ahead.

4/10/2026: A = 7: K = 3:

5/10/2026: A = 36: K = 5: WEEKEND AURORA OUTBURST: First, a CME hit Earth on Oct. 3rd. Then a solar wind stream struck on Oct. 4th. The double blow caused a two-day G1/G2-class geomagnetic storm with auroras photographed in the USA from New York to Iowa. The best display, however, was in New Zealand. The solar wind is still blowing around Earth, so more high-latitude auroras are possible on Oct. 5th.

6/10/2026: A = 24: K = 3: A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SUNSPOT: Don’t be surprised if there is a strong solar flare today. New sunspot 4549 is growing rapidly (it didn’t even exist yesterday), and it has developed an unstable magnetic field that harbors energy for X-flares. Any explosions today will be geoeffective as the sunspot is directly facing Earth.

7/10/2026: A = 7: K = 0:

8/10/2026: A = 6: K = 1: Great News! last night 50MHz TEP VE1PZ to LU/CE/PY: and today AM: JA to VK/ZL/FK also on 50MHz: This is due to increase in SFI: Eu watch for possible 50MHz dx today to ZS/V5 etc: de G4ICD:

9/10/2026: A = 6: K = 2: GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Earth’s magnetic field is about to get hit by as many as three CMEs–the first on Oct. 9th, the second and third on Oct. 11th. The series of impacts could spark category G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms with perfect timing for aurora photographers. The nearly-new Moon will provide inky-dark skies throughout the forecast period. A SOLAR TSUNAMI: Sunspot 4549 erupted again on Oct. 8th, producing an M6.7-class solar flare. The blast also propelled a solar tsunami through the sun’s stmosphere. It was a near-global event:

The solar tsunami–formally known as a Moreton wave–is a giant, fast-moving wave of hot plasma and magnetic energy that ripples across the surface of the sun. The shock front is taller than Earth, moving faster than 1 million mph.

As this wave expanded over the face of the sun, a CME lifted off. It is expected to graze Earth on Oct. 11th, adding its energy to that of two CMEs ahead of it. Stay tuned for geomagnetic storms and auroras this weekend.

10/10/2026: A = 11: K = 2: 50MHz 0300z: LU > TI/YS/NP4/HI/TG Caribbean TEP: HK > CE also: